As you probably know, every month we ask our supporters to help our readers by responding to what, we hope, are some thoughtful, real-world questions that can make a difference to business leaders in South Jersey.
   This month, we asked experts in the banking and financial services world to take a look at the year ahead and give us a reading on where we should expect to stand…nationally and in the region.
   This month’s panel of experts includes:
     • Gerard M. Banmiller
       President & CEO
       1st Colonial National Bank
     • Michael D. Devlin
       President & CEO
       Cape Bank
     • Albert Fox
       Fox, Penberthy & Dehn
       Merrill Lynch Wealth Management Advisors
   Next, here’s a little about the organizations that our experts represent, in their own words:
     • Cape Bank, headquartered in Cape May Court House, New Jersey, is a $1.1 Billion full service institution. We provide a complete line of deposit and lending options to small and mid-sized businesses, professionals and individuals located in our primary market area of Cape May and Atlantic Counties, New Jersey. Our goal is to develop strong customer relations providing these services through 16 full service branches.
     • 1st Colonial National Bank is a federally chartered commercial bank. Although we serve all segments of the economy, our specialty of service tends towards commercial and government enterprise. As a local community bank our responsiveness is the difference between the large banks and us. Since our opening in May of 2000 we have always had profitable quarters and we anticipate they will continue.
     • Fox, Penberthy & Dehn is a wealth management practice that works with clients to achieve their financial goals. We maintain high standards and strive to offer the most current and thorough financial advice. Our strategies are designed to help clients and their families better manage life’s changes, transitions and challenges.
Finally, here’s what our experts have to say. First, about the state of the economy and, then, about their industry:
I. THE NATIONAL ECONOMY IN 2012:
   1.SNJBP: Give us a rating on how you expect the economy to perform in 2012 compared to this year...nationally, across the state, and in the region.
Banmiller:
     a. Nationally on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
           2011 - 50 / 2012- 50
     b. New Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
           2011 - 50 / 2012- 50
     c. South Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
           2011 - 50 / 2012- 50
   Devlin:
     a. Nationally on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
          2011 - 60 / 2012 - 75
     b. New Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
          2011 - 50 / 2012 - 60
     c. South Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
          2011 - 50 / 2012 - 60
   Fox:
     a. Nationally on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
          2012 - 55
     b. New Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
         2012 - 50
     c. South Jersey on a scale of 1 (low) to 100 (high)
          2012 - 55
   2. SNJBP: What is the most important challenge facing the national economy?
   Banmiller: Federal budget deficit and OBAMA
   Devlin: Unemployment/Inability to create new jobs
   Fox: European debt crisis
   3. What is the most important challenge facing the regional economy?
   Banmiller: High property taxes/resistance to shared services
   Devlin: “Soft” casino industry
   Fox: State budget deficit
    4. SNJBP: Will the MF Global bankruptcy have any lasting impact beyond the consequences for the firm’s managers, employees, and investors/customers? If so, what? Are there any other MF Global “situations” lurking out there?
   Devlin: No. There are always negative financial situations lurking. That’s one of the risks that prompts payment to investors.
   Fox: The MF Global collapse, similar to scandal-ridden predecessors, will likely empower those in the political arena who are seeking more expansive reforms and regulations in the finance industry. These calls may be echoed by the voting public in 2012, but politicians will have a difficult time discerning the merits of new legislation in the face of prior ineffective laws, such as Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank. There will inevitably be companies that fall victim to internal mismanagement, but not necessarily on such a large scale as MF Global. It is uncertain whether or not other firms can learn from MF Global’s mistakes and implement the kind of risk-management policies that can prevent such situations from occurring in the future.
   5. SNJBP: Did the “Occupy Wall Street” movement have any lasting impact? If so, what?
   Devlin: It is a more interesting social movement than a successful catalyst for economic changes. While economics played an important part and perhaps brought the dissatisfaction to a tipping point, it is probably more linked to social shifts (changes in jobs, social uncertainty, shifting social roles) than purely financial issues. There is apparently a large group that played by all the social rules and now finds themselves disenfranchised socially, politically, and economically. The slow recovery has brought the economic/financial issues to the forefront, but the dissatisfaction is far broader.
II. THE REGIONAL ECONOMY IN 2012:
     6. SNJBP: Did you see any significant consolidation in any industry sectors in South Jersey in the next 12 months? Who? Why?
   Devlin: Perhaps some reduction in gaming as weak hands are forced into extinction/combination, but no clear signs of other industries consolidating.
     7. SNJBP: What will be the top five growth sectors the region over the next 12 months? Why?
   Devlin: If my predictions for a gradually improving economy hold true, then financial institutions may experience some growth. A second industry may be Health care, mainly because it seems to be in virtuous cycle.
     8. SNJBP: What changes in employment do you see in the region in the next 12 months? Who will be the big winners and losers?
   Devlin: Hopefully, gaming will reverse its recent downward trend. Seasonal businesses appear to have had a good 2011 summer season which may lead to a greater number of hires for 2012. The overwhelming number of firms in this part of South Jersey are service firms with little representation from non-service industries. Peering outside the service sector, commercial fishing and farming represent different industries, but there doesn’t appear to be any evidence to support an increase in employment.
   Fox: We have seen employment stabilize in our specific industry, but overall we continue to see broader consolidation. With an added focus on regulation and compliance in the banking and financial industry, we have seen an increase in demand in those fields. Budget cuts in the public sector as part of New Jersey’s larger austerity program may limit employment opportunities for government jobs in the coming year.