The Rutgers-Camden Quarterly Business Outlook drew 225 attendees to its breakfast confab Tuesday, July 15, at the Clarion Hotel in Cherry Hill, and at least 5 or 6 silver linings from the region’s very cloudy economic situation.
Sponsored by the Rutgers School of Business-Camden and supported by Flaster/Greenberg and the Chamber of Commerce of Southern New Jersey, the diverse panel gathered together by Quarterly Business Outlook moderator and business school dean Mitchell Koza took turns searching the economic horizon for good news.
The panelists pulled no punches about the fact the economy is bumping along, but plucked these potential plums from the national financial downturn:
Herb Taylor, vice president/corporate secretary, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, said the economy has “a number of negatives to overcome,” and performance will likely improve “only gradually as we move into 2009, but the housing downturn “seems to have slowed a bit,” and business investment spending “is picking up this quarter.”
  Jay Jones, deputy executive director, South Jersey Port Corporation, had stats to support the fact the weaker U.S. dollar, while a problem, does allow the United States to compete more effectively in the export market -- exports are up 41 percent while imports are down 21 percent.
  Anthony Cimino, president/chief administrative officer, CMX, the national engineering and consulting firm, with clients throughout New Jersey, Arizona, Pennsylvania, New York, Maryland, Florida, Nevada and Mexico, said while the housing market may be tight in New Jersey, it’s nothing compared to such states as Arizona, which has 50,000 new homes unoccupied and unsold.
  Lance de la Rosa, regional general manager/vice president, Wal-Mart, said his big box is a valuable port in the financial storm for cost-conscious consumers.
  Taylor seconded that in a tip of the cap to savvy consumers in the southern New Jersey/Delaware Valley area who, he said, are shopping at discount retailers rather than the brand-name stores, and also picking up store brands when they go food shopping.
  Consumer spending is the key to growth, he said, but the erosion of household wealth due to food and fuel costs, as well as a tightening credit market and a higher unemployment rate, all result in less spending. The national economic stimulus plan has boosted spending, but Taylor anticipates that the spending will slow again once the rebate checks “stop hitting the mail.”
  From a bottom-line standpoint, Taylor said the nation, technically, isn’t in a recession, but “clearly, the economy is bumping along in a halting fashion.”  The economy has “a number of negatives to overcome,” and performance will likely improve “only gradually as we move into 2009.”
  Besides silver linings, the panel also thought the current economic climate provided smart opportunities for some companies and creative opportunities for others. Examples:
  -- Cimino said Southern New Jersey would do well to examine “real smart growth planning, workforce housing, and transportation infrastructure upgrades” in order to stay competitive.
  -- Jones said the ports are seeking to expand in Paulsboro, with plans to construct a general marine terminal advancing during the next 24-36 months. South Jersey ports are seeing strength in such products as fruit, cocoa, and scrap metal. (“Scrap metal picks up when the economy weakens,” says Jones). Currently, the South Jersey ports move 4 million tons of cargo each year.
  -- de la Rosa said Wal-Mart looks forward to the opening of a new facility in Deptford.
Taylor, the Fed economic expert, even offered a silver-lining like benediction: “Stability will come, but will take several quarters to get here.”